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Post by sc on Mar 1, 2020 19:50:46 GMT
Just a thought and one that's not the great.
With Coronavirus there is a growing possibility that large events will be banned this summer. Obviously in the circumstances it's understandable, but what I was wondering is if the Governments bans events (such as Womad):
a) Will Womad have to refund customers? I would have thought that would bankrupt many many festivals including Womad.
b) Will The Government pay compensation for ticket holders of banned big events? No idea how much that would cost but it's likely to be in the 100's £'millions if not £billions
c) Customers have to "such it up"
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Post by olirow on Mar 1, 2020 20:38:47 GMT
Good question.
Little chance that the Government will pay up, so I'd guess it would be down to Womad to offer refunds. Their ability to do so would depend on any insurance they may have arranged and/or the depth of Peter Gabriel's pockets.
I am not sure what legal entity stands behind Womad but assuming it's limited liability, I would guess it could go bust, and a successor organisation take over for next year. In that situation, it's the customer that pays.
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Post by beef on Mar 2, 2020 6:59:53 GMT
They must have insurance... surely?
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Post by sc on Mar 2, 2020 9:22:29 GMT
I'm not convinced about insurance, yes, public events will have Public Liability insurance, but would it cover Government ordered closure due to pandemic? I seem to recall, things like damage or loss of earnings from Riot and public disorder is excluded from insurance, so the small business, shop keepers or policy holder that have suffered from the impact of a Riot, smashed windows, looting etc has to fix the problem themselves if the Government doesn't step in, insurance I don't believe touches things like Riot with a barge pole, presumably because it's the Governments responsibility to keep the population safe and docile. It certainly also used to have clauses like excluding "Acts of God", if you live in areas that may flood, insurance usually excludes it, presumably again because maintenance of drainage, rivers, flood defences etc etc are the responsibility of Government.
So logically, I'd have thought it's not insurable, insurance companies would at least try to say, "The health of the nation is Governments responsibility, the Government has failed in that respect, it's the Government that is also closing the events, therefore any financial compensation for the failure to keep the population safe and forced closure of business is the responsibility of Government".
If we think about the scale of the impact it must be huge, we have a population of around 65 million, I would guess the majority would go to some sort of event at least once, be it Festivals, Theatre, Football, Theme Park, Cinema, the list would go on and on.
Let's say 50% of the population goes to something and the average spend is £300 pp, that's 32,500,000 X £300 or £9,750,000,000. £9.75billion is a big lump for the Government to find, if it is insurance companies that have to pay, some may indeed go to the wall, pension funds will be hit as investors fall, confidence in the financial markets evaporates as funds seek "safe havens" and perhaps a return to 2008/9 ..... not great. I know the figures I have shown above are purely made up by me, but when you factor in, loss of earnings, broken contracts with suppliers etc it probably will be in the right ball park.
If a ban comes into place, I think it won't be insurance that pays, I think the Government will compensate the public funded via Gilt auctions (after all, the public vote and the Tories want to build on it's gains in the last election), but not compensate business as they don't vote and the Government would consider it as "all part of the rough and tumble of running business".
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Post by beef on Mar 2, 2020 18:00:27 GMT
I always like to read your analyses sc - as you said, kind of made-up, they ring true... I think you may be right about insurance policies not covering situations like this. But I'm wondering at what point would womad really start to rack up costs? When are they contractually committed to paying for plumbing, staging, sound and lighting gear, security, waste collection etc? I imagine that most performers are more easily cancelled. Womad have cancelled/postponed festivals in other countries (just recently Mexico), so there must be some provision...
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Post by deserttraveller on Mar 2, 2020 22:45:45 GMT
I think it would be classed as Force majeure and this is the wiki definition- Force majeure – or vis major – meaning "superior force", also known as cas fortuit or casus fortuitus "chance occurrence, unavoidable accident", is a common clause in contracts that essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as a war, strike, riot, crime, or an event described by the legal term act of God, prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract. In practice, most force majeure clauses do not excuse a party's non-performance entirely, but only suspend it for the duration of the force majeure.
It was always a pious hope to keep it out. As the virus escalates so will the government response, emergency powers will be bought in etc.
The hope is to flatten the curve so that only so many are affected per month, that way the country doesn't completely fall over, imagine 8 million per month for 6 months, better than a peak of say 30 million in a month. The fact is we must assume it will hit & July is likely to be one of the peak months , many will not attend due to illness or fear of the same.
Business continuity for every one with employees will be a consideration, that includes all the infra structure at festivals.
Worst case all events in summer would be cancelled, but if the virus is raging by June what's the point, you will get it anyway, people may take the view 'WTF lets go anyway', unless the choice is foisted apon them by emergency powers.
Certainly less people will be about this summer either thro illness or choice.
Its a grim prospect and the effects will be massive.
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Post by Zenrider on Mar 2, 2020 23:14:23 GMT
I'm thinking by then the worst of it may have run it's course.
If any of the festivals are going to have issues with Covid19, it would be New Zealand and Australia. I wonder though, if that's why the delay for announcing dates for Spain?
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Post by calndel on Mar 4, 2020 9:26:41 GMT
as we posted in the countdown tread a few film makers were not allowed to travel to the Glasgow Film festival due to health fears in their own countries.
We suspect this kind of thing will continue and is very likely going to effect any kind of festival.
It the world we live in
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Post by beef on Mar 4, 2020 10:19:10 GMT
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Post by calndel on Mar 4, 2020 15:33:10 GMT
personally I am looking forward to 14 days off work at the first sign of my next cold
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Post by sc on Mar 4, 2020 15:54:36 GMT
Nice move to shift the risk from the Public Purse (Government) to the Private Sector 👍 |
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Post by beef on Mar 4, 2020 17:36:37 GMT
Nice move to shift the risk from the Public Purse (Government) to the Private Sector 👍 Weird... doesn't usually work that way around... privatised profit, nationalised risk and loss... |
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Post by calndel on Mar 5, 2020 13:24:54 GMT
Briefly put the news on this morning to be confronted with a barrage of Virus talk, no really information, no reporting just opinion, some simple health advice which should be standard behaviour and government advice (propaganda). The tv didn't stay on long.
Life is a lot less stressful without the added anxiety for the news media and large parts of social media.
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Post by calndel on Mar 5, 2020 13:29:28 GMT
On the day the new Bond film was delayed, lets be clear it has been delayed for profit reasons not health reasons.
Some of the independent film makers at Glasgow Film Festival are also struggling to find someone to distribute and show their films for the same reason, fear that every is going to stop going out or Government are going to put cities into lock down or ban mass events.
Will they also ban going to the shops on a Saturday?
As the old saying goes, the only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.
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Post by mikey on Mar 5, 2020 17:40:37 GMT
On the day the new Bond film was delayed, lets be clear it has been delayed for profit reasons not health reasons. Some of the independent film makers at Glasgow Film Festival are also struggling to find someone to distribute and show their films for the same reason, fear that every is going to stop going out or Government are going to put cities into lock down or ban mass events. Will they also ban going to the shops on a Saturday? As the old saying goes, the only thing we have to fear, is fear itself. Profit reasons for the film producers, investors and distributors but going be a financial blow for small independent cinemas who had the film scheduled and will struggle to find a replacement that will get the punters in. |
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